At this point in the Massachusetts special election (to be held Tuesday, January 19, 2010), both the GOP and the Democrats show internal polling numbers with the State Senator ahead.
Steve Kornacki writes that the State Attorney General’s internals show Brown ahead by 3:
I’ve been told reliably that Martha Coakley’s internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Scott Brown by three points — 47 to 44 percent.
As I wrote yesterday, her internal poll on Wednesday night had her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The appearance of continued Brown momentum meshes with the Suffolk University/WHDH poll released earlier today, which put Brown ahead 50-46 percent.
And over at National Review Online, Jim Geraghty sez the State Senator’s internals show him ahead by 11:
A weird evening. Within five minutes, two sources call, each one hearing through the grapevine the internals of one of the two major campaigns in Massachusetts.
One tells me that the most recent internal poll of the Scott Brown campaign shows the Republican winning by… 11 percentage points. I’m getting the sense that the folks hearing this are almost a little incredulous, but it seems every demographic and key group is breaking to Brown in the past day or two. For weeks, Brown and everyone around him has said they will campaign and work as if they’re 30 percentage points down. But it seems like the campaign has been one Coakley stumble after another, and you figure that would eventually start effecting the numbers. According to that measure, it’s starting to break heavily in Brown’s direction… but we’ll have to see what the final few days bring.
So, what happened to Coakley to turn this election into one for her to lose? The Boston Globe has an excellent write-up on how “Coakley Underestimated Scott Brown in Mass. Race.”
The Boston Herald has an op-ed piece on “Scott Brown Present in Absentee Voters’ Minds.”
Via Prof. Jacobson, the Cambridge Police Patrol Officers Association President Stephen Killion posted the following letter to members solidifying their endorsement of Mr. Brown. Apparently, Ms. Coakley had been repeating the fact that her husband is a retired police officer, insinuating in some voters’ minds an endorsement of the State Attorney General:
Members of our Association have inquired and requested that we endorse Scott Brown in the upcoming election against Martha Coakley.
Ms. Coakley along with some of her campaign workers have talked publicly about how her husband is a retired Cambridge Police Officer, giving appearances that she is being endorsed by the Cambridge Police. This may be an innocent insinuation but most do take this as our giving her our support and endorsement.
Yesterday, the CPPOA Executive Board voted to endorse State Senator Scott Brown in the upcoming election for US Senate. In an 11 to 2 vote, the Executive Board voted overwhelmingly in favor of the endorsement.
We do not endorse anyone who advocates changes in the health care that take away any bargaining rights or increases our cost along with our contributions. Senator Brown does not support the Comprehensive Healthcare Reform Bill and promises to be the 41st vote to ensure its defeat. The current leadership at the state house, as we all know and have seen over the past two years, have an agenda to dismantle all of our hard earned bargained benefits and they will continue to dismantle these until there is a complete change from the top down. Martha Coakley is part of this Massachusetts leadership and she will continue with this agenda, only now it will be at the capital level and we need to stop it.
So today, we the members of the Cambridge Police Patrol Officers Association endorse Scott Brown for the senate seat vacated by Senator Kennedy.
According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley’s campaign, the consequences of Obama’s visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley’s campaign.
Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.
“Obama is radioactive in polls,” said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign’s internal numbers. “Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can’t take those kinds of chances.”
In the “don’t make a threat unless you hold all the cards to follow through” department, HotAir reports that one Democrat Representative says that reconciliation is on the table if Brown wins (reconciliation is the process by which legislation could pass the Senate without requiring 60 votes to pass; such legislation must be re-voted upon within a certain time frame and, per the referenced link, has very specific rules associated with it).
Of course, such a threat assumes that there would still be enough Senators willing to say “Yea” in such a scenario. In the event of a Brown win, the political landscape would be so radically changed that nobody could honestly know, at this point in time, who would still be for or against the legislation.
See my highlighted coverage under the Category, MA Senate.
Photo courtesy CBSNews.com